Pose the question and take two or three hands-up answers, not open call-outs. There is no single right answer here yet — this hook is to get pupils pointing at spots on the line and starting to say why.

Listen for reasoning, not just a position — a pupil who says "near certain because it rains a lot here in winter" is doing the thinking the whole lesson builds on.

The cards show already placed. Point at each in turn, but do not read a script, and take two hands-up answers on why each one sits where it does before agreeing.

• The sun will rise tomorrow — the certain end. Ask why nothing beats it.
• I will grow wings — the impossible end. It can never happen.
• A flipped coin lands heads — exactly the middle. Two outcomes, both fair, so even chance.
• The next car to pass is red — toward unlikely. Possible, but most cars are not red.

The coin on the middle is the reference mark for the rest of the lesson: everything else is judged against it. Ask "is this more likely or less likely than the coin?" before agreeing on any borderline event.

Talk this one through together — pupils take turns at the board and the class agrees or corrects out loud.

Run the four cards in the order listed so the round builds: the school-day card is likely on most days (a genuine talking point); the toast is near even chance (a nice close call); the summer holidays sit at certain; and the roll-a-six card is clearly unlikely but not impossible.

• For each card, ask the pupil at the board to place it, then ask the class "more likely or less likely than the coin?" before agreeing.
• Revoice a strong reason: "so it sits near unlikely because only one of the six faces is a six."
• Rotate four different pupils to the board. If a placement is contested, that is the lesson working — settle it by reasoning, not by vote.

This is the practice round — pupils take turns at the board, check each placement, and the class confirms before moving on. Keep the board work brisk rather than over-explaining.

• The school bell is certain. Cloud in Ireland is very likely but not certain. Meeting a friend at break is likely for most. The sweets card is a genuine even-or-near-even call and depends on how many of each colour — that is the one to slow down on.
• The point of the round is the two-likely comparison: when two cards both belong near certain, make the class justify which sits closer. "Which is more sure to happen?"
• For the sweets card, if pupils say "we can't know without counting", that is excellent reasoning — revoice it and place it near the middle as "we need more information".