Roll a real die (or the on-screen one) once as pupils settle. Take three hands-up answers, not open call-outs. Do not settle the maths yet — the point is to surface the words maybe, probably not, no chance, which we sharpen into likely / unlikely / impossible over the lesson.

Point at each face's bar as it grows on the die histogram: see how no single bar pulls far ahead over a long run. On the four-part spinner, hold out for a pupil to name equally likely. On the last spinner, ask what a pupil would pick if a prize depended on it — the class should spot the big part is the smart bet, so it is not fair.

Do not tell them the last spinner is unfair before asking — let a pupil call it.

Talk this one through together — pupils take turns at the board and the class agrees or corrects out loud.

Have a pupil come up and spin several times, then read the bars: which colour has the tallest bar, and does that match its size on the wheel? Revoice a strong answer: so the bigger the slice, the taller its bar grows over time. Keep pupils predicting before each run — the prediction is where the reasoning lives.

This is the practice round — pupils take turns at the board, check each answer, and the class confirms before moving on. Keep the board work brisk rather than over-explaining.

Run Task 1 first: pupils sort the four events onto a certain-to-impossible line drawn on the board. Only when the sort is agreed move to Task 2, the three-part spinner design and fairness reasoning. Treat the thirty-roll idea as an optional stretch, not a required task — only reach it if time is left. For the stretch, listen for the idea that chance is not the same as a guarantee — a fair die does not owe you an even split after only thirty rolls; the bars level out only over a very long run.

Use the die-roller histogram from Watch and Notice to demonstrate the wobble live if the class needs convincing.